CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Rally Is Likely a Relief Bounce, Not a New Bull Phase
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warns that Bitcoin’s recent price surge is likely a relief rally, not the start of a new bull market. Its Bitcoin Bull Score Index — which aggregates 10 on-chain indicators including MVRV Z‑Score, CryptoQuant P&L Index and stablecoin liquidity — currently reads 10, meaning only one of the ten metrics is bullish. The index spiked above 60 during October 2025’s ATH but fell below 40 after the unwind and even hit zero in late November. Despite BTC climbing toward $74,000 and later trading around $70,500, the Bull Score remains in bearish territory. Santiment data shows non‑empty Bitcoin addresses rose ~3% over six months to a new all‑time high of 58.45 million, indicating growing user adoption despite weak bullish signals. Key takeaways for traders: the on‑chain momentum indicators remain mostly bearish, the recent price gains may be short‑lived relief, and on‑chain user growth alone does not confirm a sustained bull phase. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, CryptoQuant Bull Score, relief rally. Secondary/semantic keywords: on‑chain indicators, MVRV Z‑Score, stablecoin liquidity, BTC price levels, market sentiment.
Bearish
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index remains very low (10/100), indicating that the majority of key on‑chain indicators are not signaling a bullish phase despite recent price strength. Historically, similar patterns—sharp rallies followed by a rapid fall in on‑chain momentum metrics—have preceded short-lived relief rallies rather than sustained bull markets (e.g., post‑ATH unwind cycles). Short term: expect elevated volatility, potential pullbacks toward support levels as traders take profits and risk metrics remain unfavorable. The relief rally can offer quick scalp opportunities but carries higher downside risk if on‑chain signals don’t improve. Long term: healthy growth in non‑empty addresses (Santiment’s ATH) is a positive structural indicator for adoption, but it alone does not trigger a bull market without concurrent improvement across multiple on‑chain momentum and liquidity metrics. Traders should watch the Bull Score components (MVRV Z‑Score, P&L Index, stablecoin liquidity) and price confirmation above sustained resistance before shifting to a bullish stance.