CryptoQuant signal flips Bitcoin to bull territory—watch $82K
CryptoQuant signal has flipped Bitcoin into early bull territory for the first time since March 2023, potentially signaling the worst part of the correction may be over. The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator turned bullish on May 12, using CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss Index (built from MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR-style measures).
CryptoQuant signal is green historically when Bitcoin stops behaving like a bear-market asset. Analysts note the last sustained green run began in March 2023 and preceded Bitcoin’s rise from about $20,000 to above $73,000 by April 2024. A key exception was March 2022, when the indicator briefly turned green before a deeper drawdown extended into 2023.
Why traders still shouldn’t call a confirmed bull market yet: BTC needs decisive acceptance above the $82,000 resistance level, which has rejected multiple rallies. Moreno (CryptoQuant head of research) also flagged secondary “exhaustion” metrics.
Supporting flow and on-chain context: April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $2.44B (strongest since Oct 2025). Glassnode’s RHODL ratio is 4.5, near the highest historical levels (previous comparable cycle-bottom readings were in 2015 and 2022). Institutional/analyst takes include Arthur Hayes calling the $60,000 area the 2026 cycle bottom and pointing to ~$90,000 as a key threshold; Bitget Wallet’s Lacie Zhang expects a potential breakout toward $85,000–$90,000.
Key trading focus: how Bitcoin reacts around $82,000 and whether the CryptoQuant signal continues to hold with improving price acceptance.
Bullish
The CryptoQuant signal turning green into early bull territory is a constructive regime-shift cue. In prior cycles (notably the March 2023→August 2024 period referenced in the article), such green readings tended to coincide with the transition away from bear-market behavior and preceded a major upside move—from ~$20K to above $73K by April 2024. That historical pattern supports a bullish bias.
However, confirmation is not yet price-action validated. The article stresses that BTC still faces a repeatedly rejected $82,000 resistance level. This means the market may see short-term chop or pullbacks if price cannot decisively break and hold above that zone, even if the CryptoQuant signal remains favorable.
Additional context tilts the balance: strong April spot Bitcoin ETF inflows ($2.44B) and a high RHODL ratio (4.5, near historic cycle-bottom behavior) suggest sustained demand and longer-term holder conviction—factors that typically reduce downside volatility and improve odds of follow-through once resistance breaks.
In the short term, traders may front-run or position for a breakout, but risk management remains crucial around $82K. In the long term, if the CryptoQuant signal continues to hold while BTC clears resistance and ETF/holder metrics stay elevated, odds increase that the market is moving into a more durable uptrend rather than a brief dead-cat bounce.