CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Likely to Enter Prolonged Sideways Market Unless Saylor Sells Big
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said persistent selling pressure and stalled fresh inflows are driving ongoing Bitcoin weakness. Early holders who accumulated large unrealized gains—boosted by ETF demand and MicroStrategy (MSTR) purchases—have been taking profits since early last year, and realized market capitalization has flattened, signaling liquidity exhaustion. Ki identified MicroStrategy as a primary driver of the prior rally and argued a repeat of a historical ~70% crash is unlikely unless Michael Saylor or MicroStrategy liquidates substantial BTC holdings. With robust inflows that previously supported prices now dried up, Ki expects the bear market to evolve into a prolonged, wide-range sideways consolidation rather than a sudden deep cyclical collapse. Traders should watch institutional concentration risk, profit-taking from long-term holders, ETF flows and any large MicroStrategy moves as key catalysts for volatility.
Bearish
The commentary points to reduced net inflows, flattened realized cap and active profit-taking by early holders—factors that increase selling pressure and reduce upward momentum for BTC. MicroStrategy’s prior buying helped sustain prices; without fresh institutional inflows or new retail demand, liquidity is thin and price is more likely to trade sideways or decline further. The statement that a ~70% crash is unlikely absent a large Saylor/MSTR liquidation limits the probability of an extreme capitulation, but ongoing selling and dried-up ETF/other inflows suggest downward bias in the near term. For traders: expect lower liquidity, higher sensitivity to large institutional moves, range-bound price action with occasional spikes on concentrated selling or any renewed inflows. Medium-term impact remains mixed — structural concentration risk and exhausted inflows are bearish, while the lack of a single large forced liquidation reduces tail-risk of a catastrophic drawdown.