CryptoQuant: MicroStrategy Shifts to Defensive BTC Strategy; Markets Still Price Small Routine Buys
CryptoQuant’s weekly report finds Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (Strategy) moving from aggressive Bitcoin accumulation toward balance-sheet protection. The company has created a USD reserve and signalled the option to hedge or sell in stressed markets. Polymarket prediction odds still favour routine small MSTR BTC purchases, but the probability of large buys (over 1,000 BTC) has fallen to roughly 40–45%. Strategy’s average disclosed purchase size dropped from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC year-to-date, and monthly accumulation is down more than 90% versus last year. Weak DAT inflows and reduced corporate treasury buying mean firms are absorbing far less supply, implying a different demand backdrop for BTC in 2026 unless new buyers appear. Market moves: BTC recovered to around $93k but faces resistance near the 2025 yearly open (~$93.4k); ETH rose above $3,100 toward $3,200; gold was muted ahead of U.S. inflation data. Key SEO keywords: MicroStrategy, BTC accumulation, CryptoQuant, Polymarket, bitcoin treasury, market liquidity.
Neutral
The news signals a material shift in a major corporate buyer’s behaviour: MicroStrategy is prioritising balance-sheet protection and smaller, cosmetic buys rather than aggressive accumulation. That reduces a known source of persistent demand that supported BTC prices in the prior cycle, which is bearish for long-term structural demand. However, markets are already pricing this shift—Polymarket odds and disclosed purchase data show traders expect smaller routine buys rather than sudden large sales. Short-term price impact is likely limited/neutral because expected small purchases preserve branding without materially removing supply; BTC recently recovered to around $93k and is consolidating below resistance. If corporate treasury buying continues to decline and no new buyers (retail, ETFs, sovereigns) step in, the long-term demand gap could be bearish for BTC. Comparable past events: after institutional buyers slowed in prior cycles, BTC required new retail or ETF-driven demand to resume uptrends. Traders should watch: MicroStrategy filings and disclosed buys, DAT inflows, on-chain transfer-to-exchange metrics, ETF flows, and macro catalysts (inflation/Fed). For traders: expect higher sensitivity to demand signals and liquidity — shorter-term neutral to mixed trading ranges, longer-term downside risk if demand erosion persists.