CZ predicts a Bitcoin ’super cycle’ as 2025 breaks the 4-year pattern
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) said a "super cycle" for Bitcoin may be beginning after Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red for the third consecutive year — the first such occurrence in 14 years. CZ pointed to rising institutional demand as the primary catalyst, highlighting a reported $383 million Bitcoin purchase by Wells Fargo in January 2026 and the U.S. SEC removing crypto from its 2026 priority risk list. These developments, CZ argues, contrast with retail sell-offs and could sustain a multi-year uptrend driven by ETF inflows and bank buying. Some analysts question whether Bitcoin’s traditional roughly 4-year halving-driven cycle is broken after the 2025 close, while others (including CryptoFlow) contend the long-term pattern remains intact, noting past cycles’ ~35-month bottom-to-top rhythm and projecting a possible next cycle low in October 2026. Traders should watch institutional flows, ETF demand, and macro signals through 2026 to determine whether the market is transitioning into a longer-term "super cycle" or merely experiencing cycle noise.
Bullish
The news leans bullish because it highlights growing institutional demand — notably a reported $383m Wells Fargo purchase and positive regulatory signaling (SEC removing crypto from a priority risk list). Institutional accumulation and ETF inflows historically provide more durable demand than retail trading and can lift price floors and reduce volatility over time. CZ’s "super cycle" thesis suggests a structural change where bank and ETF flows decouple Bitcoin from strictly halving-driven 4-year cycles. Short-term, the market could remain volatile as retail sentiment and technicals respond to the 2025 red close; traders may see corrective moves and range-bound trading. Medium-to-long term, sustained institutional buying and ETF capital inflows tend to be bullish: they increase liquidity, raise demand expectations, and can extend or shift cycle timing (as with the post-ETF-adoption periods seen after major regulatory approvals). However, risks remain — if institutional flows disappoint or macro liquidity tightens, the bullish impulse could fade. Traders should monitor custody and ETF inflows, large institutional trades, on-chain accumulation metrics, and macro/regulatory developments to manage position sizing and timing.