Crypto winter forces shakeout of DAT treasury stocks as Bitcoin and Ether slide

Digital-asset treasury (DAT) stocks plunged after Bitcoin’s October crash pushed many token-holding firms into unrealized losses. Leading DATs and copycats fell sharply (examples: Strategy ~-40% since Oct. 10; NAKA -39%; ABTC -60%; BRR -65%; ether-heavy names BMNR, SBET, BTBT down ~33–40%). Many DATs now trade below 1x mNAV (market cap relative to on‑book crypto holdings), signaling market valuation beneath their token assets and increasing the risk of forced coin sales to cover dividends, debt or operating costs. Strategy has amassed a $1.44bn cash reserve to sustain payouts for about 21 months and is contesting potential MSCI index treatment. Analysts (Bernstein, Hivemind, Galaxy Digital) forecast a Darwinian consolidation: of roughly 100 treasury firms with measurable cost bases, 65 are underwater and several recently sold ~1,883 BTC. New entrants such as Twenty One Capital (XXI) seek to differentiate with operating businesses and cash-flow models rather than pure token accumulation. DAT business models offer advantages — clearer regulation, institutional interest and fast settlement — but carry high beta, leverage, heavy operating costs and equity dilution risk when token prices fall. For traders: expect amplified sell pressure and short-term volatility from underwater treasuries. Market leadership will favor DATs with real operating revenues, diversified capital plans and sizeable cash buffers; pure balance-sheet token plays face elevated liquidation and dilution risk.