Bitcoin Falls Below US Spot ETF Cost Basis After $2.8B of ETF Outflows

Published: 2026-02-02 20:24:53 |

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs after roughly $2.8 billion of combined ETF outflows over the past two weeks. The 11 US spot BTC ETFs hold about 1.28 million BTC (~$113 billion AUM), implying an average ETF cost basis near $87,830 — around 11% above current spot levels. CoinGlass data show $1.32 billion of outflows the week before and $1.49 billion last week. BTC fell from about $84,000 to an intra‑week low near $74,600 (≈11% decline) and briefly traded below MicroStrategy’s reported cost basis of $76,037 for the first time since October 2023. Technical indicators signal short‑term downside pressure: RSI is oversold (≈29), the 20‑day EMA sits near $86k, and Supertrend is bearish. Key support is around $74,604 with immediate resistance near $79,396. Analysts including Alex Thorn (Galaxy Research) note ETF positions are “underwater,” while Nick Ruck (LVRG Research) warns that sustained weak demand and macro uncertainty could extend losses and risk a broader bear phase if institutional buying does not return. Implications for traders: increased selling pressure from ETFs and other holders, higher short‑term volatility, and elevated risk of further downside if $74k breaks. Longer‑term outcomes hinge on whether ETF inflows resume and whether institutional holders defend their cost bases; cumulative ETF inflows to date remain sizable but are now trailing spot price action.

Bearish

Net outflows of about $2.8B across two consecutive weeks have pushed US spot BTC ETFs ’underwater’ relative to the current BTC price, increasing selling pressure and undermining institutional demand. BTC’s ~11% intra‑week drop to roughly $74.6k and the breach below major cost bases (including MicroStrategy’s) add to downside momentum. Technical indicators are bearish or oversold (RSI ≈29, EMA20 ≈$86k, Supertrend bearish), and the critical support near $74.6k is the immediate price hinge: a confirmed break would likely trigger further declines as ETF holders and other institutions de‑risk to stem losses. In the short term, expect heightened volatility, larger sell flows from institutional products, and downside bias. Over the medium to long term, the impact depends on whether ETF demand returns; sustained inflows or renewed institutional buying would be needed to reverse the bearish bias, but absent that the risk of an extended correction or bear cycle is elevated.