Bitcoin Price Faces Pressure as MVRV Ratio Drops Below 200-Day SMA, Signaling Bearish Trend
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has recently fallen below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a move often seen as a bearish signal by traders and on-chain analysts. Historically, such a crossover has corresponded with the start of downward price trends for Bitcoin. The MVRV Ratio provides insight into collective investor profit and loss by comparing market capitalization to realized capitalization, reflecting the price each coin last moved on the blockchain. As of the latest data, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $104,000 after a recent rebound, but technical indicators—including the shifting MVRV Ratio—indicate growing investor uncertainty and the potential for elevated selling pressure. Analysts identify the $98,000–$101,000 support zone as critical; a drop below this band could trigger a swift correction toward $90,000. Despite weak daily signals, weekly and monthly charts remain bullish, and Bitcoin’s dominance has increased to over 64%, suggesting ongoing investor preference compared to altcoins. Traders should closely monitor the MVRV Ratio and key support levels, as further declines could increase downside risks for Bitcoin in the short to medium term.
Bearish
The drop of Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio below its 200-day simple moving average is a historically bearish technical signal, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment and increased likelihood of selling pressure. This crossover has previously marked the beginning of downward trends. Current trading above $104,000, with weakening technical indicators and a fragile support zone between $98,000–$101,000, points to elevated short- to medium-term downside risk. However, the larger time frame charts remain positive, suggesting long-term confidence persists. Immediate effect is likely bearish, and traders should watch if key support holds; otherwise, a substantial correction could follow.