Bitcoin Price Eyed for Rally as Long-Term Holders Control 74% Supply Amid On-Chain Selling Signals
Ark Invest’s latest report shows long-term Bitcoin holders—addresses holding BTC for over 155 days—now control 74% of circulating supply, a 15-year high. Institutional investment via ETFs led by BlackRock and corporate treasuries such as MicroStrategy has fueled this trend, pushing Bitcoin price to multiple all-time highs above $123,000. Global liquidity per BTC also hit $5.7 million, a 12-year peak.
On-chain support remains firm between $96,000 and $99,000, with the short-term holder cost basis at $98,888 and the 200-day moving average at $96,278. Pseudonymous analyst Mr. Wall Street sees a local bottom near $116,000. He expects a short-term rally to $120,000–$123,500 and a mid-term surge toward $133,000–$140,000. However, on-chain data warn of growing sell-side pressure: wallets that accumulated at $16,000–$20,000 are offloading, and centralized exchange reserves have climbed to multi-week highs. Traders should weigh near-term bullish momentum in Bitcoin price against emerging distribution signals and potential ‘sell the news’ events around Fed meetings.
Bullish
The report’s data on 74% supply held by long-term Bitcoin holders and institutional inflows via ETFs reinforce confidence in Bitcoin price, supporting a bullish outlook. Analyst Mr. Wall Street’s projection of a short-term rally to $120,000–$123,500 and mid-term surge to $133,000–$140,000 adds upward momentum. On-chain warning signs—including offloading by wallets that bought at $16,000–$20,000 and rising exchange reserves—introduce caution and may trigger temporary pullbacks around Fed events. In the short term, traders can capitalize on bullish momentum targeting resistance levels. Over the medium to long term, continued accumulation by long-term holders and institutional demand underpins a positive market structure, although managing risk against distribution signals remains crucial.