Massive $13.4B Bitcoin Options Expiry Near $100K Could Spike Volatility
A large Bitcoin options expiry is due on Nov. 28, with about 147,000 BTC contracts (~$13.4B notional) concentrated around the $100,000 strike and additional clusters near $80K–$85K. Deribit reports the largest open-interest cluster (~$2.2B) at $100K; the put/call ratio for the expiry is ~0.58 (calls dominate). Concurrently ~573,000 ETH contracts (~$1.7B) expire with max pain near $3,400 and a put/call ratio ~0.50, bringing combined BTC+ETH expiries to roughly $15B. Total BTC options open interest across exchanges is cited between ~$30B–$57B in different reports, showing elevated OI. Recent macro noise—US PPI surprise—and a recent large deleveraging (CryptoQuant noted the biggest OI drop this cycle) leave positioning more neutral after a long squeeze. Spot BTC was rejected near $91.8K and trades just under $91K; ETH remains below $3,000. For traders: the concentrated call interest at $100K and short-targeted OI around $80K–$85K raise the probability of heightened intraday volatility as options flows, gamma hedging and liquidation risk feed into spot. Key actions: monitor OI clusters, strike-level flows, put/call shifts and gamma exposure into expiry; size positions prudently and set liquidation-aware risk limits ahead of possible short-term spikes.
Neutral
The news is categorized as neutral for BTC price impact. Short-term: the concentrated $100K call cluster and sizable OI at $80K–$85K materially raise the risk of intraday volatility, gamma-driven moves and liquidation cascades around expiry—events that can produce sharp price swings both up or down. Traders should expect heightened volatility and possible directional pushes as market makers hedge large options positions, but these flows do not constitute a clear net bullish or bearish signal on their own since calls dominate at $100K while puts and short-targeted OI sit lower. Macro factors (US PPI surprise) and recent deleveraging add uncertainty and have reduced extreme directional leverage, leaving positioning more neutral. Long-term: expiries are a transient liquidity event and are unlikely to change fundamental BTC demand; unless repeated heavy positioning persists, the effect should fade after expiry. Therefore, the primary impact is elevated short-term volatility rather than a sustained trend change.