Crypto Derivatives Week 25: BTC above $67K, skew less bearish as IV cools
Crypto Derivatives Week 25 (Block Scholes) shows risk sentiment improving after President Trump confirmed the electronic signing of an MOU with Iran. Oil prices fell, and markets reassessed the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end.
In Crypto Derivatives options data, BTC snapped back after a dip below $60K and briefly topped $67K. Earlier built bearish premium unwound, with 7-day skew improving to about -2.2% for BTC and -0.7% for ETH. The protective put demand is still present, but it’s no longer as one-sided.
Implied volatility also cooled. 7-day ATM IV is near ~33%, closer to the May YTD low of ~28%. The report highlights a recurring “summer volatility lull” pattern since 2023, and notes ETH’s term structure normalized after mild inversion last week.
Trading takeaway: Crypto Derivatives suggests a more balanced risk posture—less downside hedging dominance, lower IV, and choppy upside attempts rather than a clean bull trend. Watch BTC call/put skew for confirmation and ETH’s reduced but still negative 25-delta risk reversal as spot moves.
Neutral
Risk sentiment improves and implied volatility cools after the Iran MOU confirmation, which can support a steadier bid. However, options structure still shows meaningful put-demand (negative skew/25-delta risk reversal), and the bullish shift is not fully confirmed—especially for BTC where upside call conviction remains fragile. Short-term: expect choppy upside with reduced fear premiums and lower IV. Longer-term: unless skew continues improving toward neutral/positive and spot follow-through holds, traders may keep a balanced or defensive posture rather than reprice a clean bull cycle.