Deutsche Bank remains bullish on DAX, forecasts 18% gain despite Germany cutting growth to 1.0%
Deutsche Bank strategist Maximilian Uleer says the bank remains unusually bullish on German equities, forecasting an 18% rally for the DAX in 2026 versus an 8% consensus. Uleer cites strong earnings growth, improving sentiment and large fiscal stimulus — notably Germany’s recent relaxation of debt rules and a €500 billion infrastructure and defence fund — as drivers. The DAX outperformed U.S. indexes for three consecutive years (gains of 18.8% in 2023, 20.3% in 2024 and 23% in 2025). This optimism comes as the German Economy Ministry cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.0% (from 1.3%), pointing to trade frictions and high energy costs. Market moves so far show the DAX near 24,500, helped by bank stocks, Adidas buybacks and Deutsche Bank’s own strong 2025 profit report. For traders: key catalysts to watch are German fiscal spending implementation, corporate earnings among DAX constituents (SAP, Allianz, Rheinmetall, Deutsche Bank), energy prices and global risk sentiment — any slippage in growth or delays to spending could undercut the bullish thesis, while successful deployment of the €500bn fund and stronger-than-expected earnings would support further upside.
Neutral
This news is neutral for crypto markets. It centers on equity-market optimism for German stocks based on fiscal stimulus and corporate earnings, not on cryptocurrency-specific policy or assets. Short-term effects on crypto trading may be limited: stronger European equities and a risk-on shift could draw some risk capital away from cryptos, creating mild headwinds; conversely, higher global liquidity from fiscal expansion can indirectly support risk assets including crypto, which would be bullish. Past episodes (e.g., equity rallies driven by fiscal stimulus) showed mixed crypto responses: sometimes correlated rallies when liquidity rises, sometimes outflows when institutional funds rotate into equities. Traders should monitor risk sentiment, EUR strength, and shifts in institutional flows. Key short-term signals: DAX moves, EUR/USD, macro headlines on Germany’s spending timetable, and risk-on/off indicators (equities, yields). Long-term, if Germany’s fiscal expansion sustains corporate earnings and global growth, broader risk-asset demand could bolster crypto adoption and flows; if growth disappoints and energy costs persist, risk aversion may pressure both equities and speculative crypto positions.