Dogecoin Down 30% but Echoes 2021 Pattern: Signs of Strategic Accumulation for a Potential Breakout

Dogecoin (DOGE) has dropped roughly 30% over the past month but is exhibiting patterns similar to its 2016–17 and 2020–21 cycles, each of which preceded massive rallies (5,000% in 2017 and 21,000% in 2021). After closing 2024 at $0.31 with a 287% annual gain, DOGE’s recent pullback below the $0.20 support level coincided with a decrease in Open Interest from $3 billion to $1.74 billion, suggesting aggressive deleveraging. Meanwhile, Glassnode data shows 30-day exchange supply change turning negative, indicating net outflows and potential strategic accumulation off exchanges. Active addresses have rebounded to 118,000 from sub-80,000 in mid-June, signaling renewed on-chain interest. Traders should watch for a “healthy” reset: a period of consolidation where spot demand absorbs derivative liquidations. If DOGE holds key support, maintains low speculative pressure, and sees continued retail and whale accumulation, the setup may mirror past cycles and set the stage for a significant breakout. Primary keywords: Dogecoin, memecoin accumulation, breakout structure. Secondary keywords: on-chain metrics, Open Interest, exchange supply outflows.