Dogecoin holders likely face up to two more years of downside, on-chain metrics suggest
Dogecoin (DOGE) appears deeply discounted by several on-chain indicators, but history and structural metrics suggest the downtrend may persist. Glassnode-derived metrics show DOGE’s “number of days spent at profit” has reached an all-time high (1,100 days), meaning a large share of holders are currently underwater. The Hodler Net Position Change indicates sustained long-term accumulation through 2024–2025, with significant selling at past cycle tops (notably in 2021). Heavy buying as DOGE fell from about $0.35 to $0.092 has left many long-term holders exposed. MVRV pricing bands show DOGE has traded at or below ~0.8x realized price for roughly two years in previous cycles before reclaiming realized-price support; the current realized price level sits near $0.140. If historical patterns repeat, DOGE may require up to two more years of a prolonged downtrend before convincingly retesting realized-price support, implying ongoing overhead supply and pressure on price. Primary keywords: Dogecoin, DOGE, on-chain metrics, MVRV, hodlers. Secondary/semantic keywords included: realized price, number of days at profit, Glassnode, long-term holders, memecoin.
Bearish
The article presents multiple on-chain signals that point to continued downside pressure for DOGE. Key drivers: (1) a record-high number of days that current price is below historical trading days — indicating many holders are underwater and potential for sell pressure; (2) sustained accumulation by hodlers during 2024–2025 left long-term holders exposed when the broader crypto sell-off resumed in late 2025; (3) MVRV band history shows DOGE has previously traded below ~0.8x realized price for about two years before recovery, and the realized-price level (~$0.140) remains an important hurdle. These factors combined imply significant overhead supply and reduced probability of a near-term bullish reversal. For traders: expect elevated volatility, predominantly to the downside, and limited conviction buying until on-chain metrics (MVRV, number of days at profit, hodler position change) show meaningful improvement or price reclaims realized-price support. Short-term implications: increased probability of further pullbacks and range-bound lower prices; risk management should favor tighter stops, reduced long exposure, or selective short/bear strategies. Long-term implication: recovery remains possible but may take up to ~2 years if historical cycle durations repeat — long-only positions should consider position sizing and dollar-cost averaging rather than all-in buys. Historical parallels: DOGE’s multi-year consolidation below realized-price in prior cycles (circa 2021–2023 pattern) preceded eventual recoveries but only after prolonged capitulation and diminished unrealized profit metrics.