Dogecoin slips to multi-month low as DOGE ETF inflows dry up and bearish technicals form
Dogecoin (DOGE) fell to its lowest level since Oct. 10, trading around $0.1227 and roughly 75% below its year-high, as investor demand wanes and technical indicators flash further risk. Grayscale and Bitwise DOGE ETFs have recorded no inflows since Dec. 11, leaving combined inflows at about $2 million and net assets near $5 million. Futures open interest has plunged from over $6 billion YTD to about $1.4 billion, signalling reduced leverage and participation. On the three-day chart DOGE shows multiple bearish patterns: a death cross (50- and 200-period EMAs crossed on Dec. 9) and a confirmed head-and-shoulders with a head at $0.4855 and shoulders at $0.2285 and $0.30, breaking below the neckline. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) are declining. Technical support sits near $0.08 (Aug low) — about 35% below current levels — while a move above $0.15 would negate the immediate bearish outlook. Key takeaways for traders: weakening ETF flows and collapsing open interest reduce liquidity and buying pressure; established bearish chart structures increase the probability of further downside in the near term; watch $0.08 support and $0.15 resistance for trade planning.
Bearish
The article highlights both fundamentals and technicals that point to downside pressure on DOGE. Fundamental indicators: ETF demand has effectively dried up (no inflows since Dec. 11, minimal net assets) and futures open interest has collapsed from over $6B to around $1.4B, indicating lower participation and weaker institutional/leveraged buying — factors that reduce liquidity and limit upside. Technical indicators: the death cross (50/200 EMA), confirmed head-and-shoulders broken below the neckline, and falling RSI/MACD are classic bearish signals that historically precede extended corrections. Short-term impact: heightened probability of further declines toward the $0.08 support as traders reduce long exposure and trend-following systems trigger sell signals. Volatility may spike on any retest of key levels. Long-term impact: unless ETF demand and open interest recover, structural buying pressure remains weak, which could cap rallies and keep DOGE range-bound or lower for an extended period. Comparable past events: similar dynamics played out in tokens after ETF enthusiasm waned or after large drops in open interest (e.g., altcoin corrections post-2021 rallies), where technical breakdowns led to multi-week drawdowns. For traders: manage risk, prefer short or neutral positions while price remains below $0.15, and watch for restoration of ETF inflows or a sustained recovery in open interest to consider bullish scenarios.