Dogecoin Hodlers and Whales Accumulate After 49% Drop, Cup-and-Handle Could Trigger Breakout
Dogecoin (DOGE) has fallen about 49% over the past two months amid a broader memecoin and altcoin downturn. On-chain metrics indicate early accumulation: Glassnode’s Hodler Net Position Change recently turned positive for the first time in over a month, showing long-term holders (155+ days) adding to positions, while CryptoQuant’s Spot Average Order Size points to rising whale spot purchases over the last two weeks. Technical analysis shows DOGE testing support near $0.13 and a developing cup-and-handle formation, which—if confirmed by a breakout above key resistance—could spark a rally. Offsetting this, only ~40.7% of DOGE supply is in profit, suggesting many holders remain underwater and could sell into bounces. Derivatives open interest has fallen below April lows, reflecting reduced speculative leverage and weaker conviction among leveraged traders. Key takeaways for traders: monitor hodler accumulation and increasing whale spot orders as early demand signals; wait for confirmation of a cup-and-handle breakout and watch resistance levels for entry; and stay cautious because supply overhang and low open interest may cap short-term upside. Primary keywords: Dogecoin, DOGE, on-chain accumulation, whales, cup-and-handle.
Neutral
The net effect of the news is neutral for DOGE price in the short term. Bullish elements: on-chain data show hodler accumulation (Hodler Net Position Change positive) and rising whale spot order sizes, which can provide a demand base and precede rallies. Technicals show a potential cup-and-handle pattern after support held near $0.13, offering a clear breakout setup that traders can act on if confirmed. Bearish elements: only ~40.7% of supply is in profit, indicating substantial seller vulnerability that could cap bounces. Open interest in derivatives is lower than April lows, meaning leveraged participants are reluctant to add longs and speculative conviction is weak. Together, these factors suggest limited upside until a clear breakout occurs with supporting volume and rising open interest. Short-term trading implications: favorable setup for opportunistic, event-driven trades (breakout confirmation, whale accumulation spikes), but high risk of range-bound action or failed rallies due to supply overhang and low leverage. Longer term, persistent hodler accumulation could be constructive if sustained and accompanied by renewed derivatives activity and broader market recovery.