Whales Stop Moving DOGE — Low Whale Activity Raises Risk for Dogecoin Rally
Whale transfers of Dogecoin (DOGE) have fallen to a 60-day low, with $1m+ transactions dropping to four from a recent peak of 38, according to analyst Ali Martinez. The sharp decline in large-holder activity comes as DOGE shows a short-term bounce but is testing key support at $0.14 for the third time this year. Technical indicators add to the downside risk: the RSI reflects persistent negative momentum since the June–September rally faded, and DOGE trades about 31.5% below its 200-day exponential moving average — above previous cycle troughs that preceded major rebounds (around 40% below the 200-EMA). Analysts warn that failure to hold $0.14 could trigger a decisive breakdown and a potential 25% drop. The report also notes growing investor interest in meme-coin presales, naming Maxi Doge (MAXI) as an example. For traders, the key takeaways are reduced whale support, weakened technicals, a critical support level at $0.14, and elevated downside risk that could produce short-term selling pressure.
Bearish
The reduction in whale transactions (from 38 to 4 $1m+ transfers) signals large holders are not supporting the recent bounce. Combined with technical weaknesses — RSI showing sustained negative momentum and price ~31.5% below the 200-day EMA — the setup raises the probability of further downside. The price is on its third test of $0.14; historical patterns suggest deeper drawdowns can occur before a meaningful rebound when price remains far below the 200-EMA. If $0.14 fails, a near-term target of ~25% lower is plausible, driven by stopped-out retail traders and potential liquidation cascades. Similar episodes (reduced whale activity plus repeated support tests) have preceded sharper corrections in other altcoins. In the short term, expect increased volatility and selling pressure; in the medium term, a sustained recovery would likely require renewed whale accumulation or a macro market risk-on shift. Traders should watch whale transfer metrics, $0.14 support, RSI, and the 200-day EMA for trade signals and risk management.