Dogecoin Faces Bearish Pressure Amid ETF Speculation and Market Uncertainty
Dogecoin (DOGE) has seen notable downward pressure, falling over 25% in the past four weeks and currently trading near $0.167. This decline aligns with a broader bearish sentiment in the altcoin market, as the total crypto market cap dropped by 2.4% in response to macroeconomic uncertainties including the Middle East crisis and the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening. Technical indicators remain negative: DOGE is trading below its 200-day EMA, while momentum signals like the weekly MACD suggest the possibility of a further 30% drop toward $0.11. However, the historical $0.167 support level has previously triggered rebounds, and lower trading volumes during the decline may imply weakening selling momentum. On-chain data shows substantial DOGE outflows from exchanges, hinting at potential accumulation by long-term investors. Social sentiment is turning more positive, with speculation around a spot DOGE ETF gaining traction. U.S. fund managers are eyeing DOGE for future ETF approval, and Polymarket assigns a 67% chance of SEC approval by the end of 2025. If DOGE sustains closes above the year-to-date downtrend, bearish scenarios could be invalidated, potentially sparking a reversal. Traders should closely monitor key support levels, market volumes, and regulatory developments to assess risk and catch any potential bullish shift.
Bearish
Dogecoin is experiencing significant short-term bearish pressure, as evidenced by recent price declines, negative momentum indicators, and its position below the 200-day EMA. While there are signs of accumulation and speculation about a possible DOGE ETF approval that could boost long-term sentiment, macroeconomic risks and weak technicals currently dominate, suggesting continued downside risk. Unless key support levels hold or regulatory catalysts emerge, DOGE remains vulnerable to further declines. Therefore, the overall impact on price action in the near term is bearish.