How dollar-backed stablecoins extend US monetary influence while keeping dollars at home
A Rabobank analysis argues dollar-backed stablecoins are spreading US dollar influence abroad without moving physical dollars overseas. When foreign firms demand dollar stablecoins from US issuers, those issuers can convert demand into purchases of US Treasury bills, returning real dollars to US government coffers while issuing digital dollars to the buyer. In cross-border trade, importers can pay exporters in stablecoins while underlying dollars remain parked in Treasuries — effectively exporting digital dollars (tokens) but retaining capital and fiscal benefits at home. Non-USD stablecoins are growing from a tiny base: supply of non-dollar stablecoins rose ~260% over the past year to a combined market cap near $1.55 billion. A practical channel accelerating this dynamic is crypto payment cards: the market is now about $18 billion in annualized volume, with monthly volumes rising from ~$100 million in early 2023 to over $1.5 billion today. These cards use stablecoins to fund transactions while leveraging Visa/Mastercard rails for acceptance, masking digital-dollar flows as ordinary card payments. For traders, the key takeaways are: (1) dollar-backed stablecoins can amplify dollar demand and Treasury demand, (2) growing non-USD stablecoins add diversification risk to dollar dominance, and (3) expanding on‑ramps like crypto cards increase real-world velocity of stablecoins — a structural trend that can affect liquidity and dollar-denominated crypto asset flows.
Neutral
The report highlights a structural effect — dollar-backed stablecoins channel demand for digital dollars while actual dollars are parked in US Treasuries. This is unlikely to produce an immediate bullish or bearish shock to crypto markets by itself. Positives: increased demand for dollar stablecoins can raise liquidity in dollar‑denominated crypto markets and subtly support Treasury yields or dollar strength, which can benefit USDC/USDT liquidity and dollar‑pegged trading pairs. Negatives/risks: rising non‑USD stablecoins and expanded on‑ramps (crypto cards) introduce substitution risk and increase transaction velocity, which could amplify short-term volatility in specific tokens or payment rails. Historical parallels: growth in stablecoin use for DeFi and on‑ramps in 2020–2021 boosted trading volumes and liquidity but also correlated with episodic volatility during market stress (e.g., March 2020). For traders: expect steady structural flows into major dollar stablecoins (supporting their utility and liquidity), possible incremental strength for dollar‑linked pairs, and localized volatility as adoption expands. Overall impact is neutral — structural and gradual rather than an immediate market driver.