DraftKings launches CFTC‑cleared prediction markets in 38 US states, eyes crypto-linked contracts

Published: 2025-12-19 20:45:36 |

DraftKings has launched DraftKings Predictions, a CFTC-registered prediction‑markets app available in 38 U.S. states that initially offers sports and financial event contracts (sports trading live in 17 states). The product runs on Railbird Exchange, a derivatives venue DraftKings acquired and registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, providing regulated clearing and a derivatives-style infrastructure similar to CME standards. DraftKings says it will expand offerings to include crypto, entertainment and cultural event contracts—allowing traders to gain exposure to outcomes such as Bitcoin halvings or Ethereum upgrades without owning the underlying assets. The move brings a major public sports-betting operator into regulated prediction markets and is expected to attract both retail and institutional liquidity by offering U.S.-compliant event contracts. DraftKings reported Q3 revenue of $1.14 billion and reiterated its full-year revenue outlook (up to $6.1 billion). Analysts say the app could boost trading volumes around volatile crypto events and shift some flow away from unregulated on‑chain platforms, while reducing counterparty and regulatory risks through CFTC oversight.

Neutral

The launch is neutral for the price of the mentioned cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH) rather than overtly bullish or bearish. Short-term, the availability of regulated event contracts tied to crypto events (e.g., halvings, upgrades) could increase trading volumes and volatility around those events as traders take directional or event-based exposure without buying spot crypto. That might produce temporary price action as liquidity flows between spot and derivatives markets. Longer term, regulated prediction markets can attract institutional order flow away from unregulated on‑chain platforms, improving market structure and reducing counterparty risk; this is structurally supportive but not a direct price-driving force. Any sustained bullish or bearish price impact would depend on the scale of adoption, leverage allowed within contracts, and whether the products materially change net demand for spot BTC/ETH. Given current information, the primary effect is increased trading activity and better risk-managed access to event bets rather than a clear directional price catalyst.