ECB rate hike on June 11: 25 bps expected, crypto focus shifts to Lagarde guidance

The ECB is set to meet on June 11, and economists overwhelmingly expect an ECB rate hike of 25 bps. If approved, the deposit facility would rise from 2.00% to 2.25%, marking the first increase after the prior 25 bps cut effective June 11, 2025. Reuters surveys show over 90% of economists forecasting the move, while current ECB rates still stand at 2.00% (deposit), 2.15% (main refinancing), and 2.40% (marginal lending). The latest push comes from renewed inflation pressure tied to the Iran conflict. Energy costs are rising, feeding into second-round effects across supply chains, food prices, and wage expectations. For crypto traders, the ECB rate hike itself is largely priced in, so the near-term headline reaction may be limited. Instead, attention will shift to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference and forward guidance—especially whether the ECB signals additional tightening as early as September 2026. A more hawkish-than-expected signal could reprice risk assets and pressure leveraged positions and altcoins first. Key takeaway: ECB rate hike expectations are already in the market. The main risk is what comes after—guidance that points to a sustained tightening cycle rather than a one-and-done move.