El Salvador Bitcoin Accumulates 7,677 BTC as Charts Target $50K
El Salvador remains a long-term buyer of Bitcoin. Government records show it holds 7,677 BTC (about $480m) and continues accumulating since Bukele’s “one coin per day” policy started in November 2022.
In 2025, the administration removed Bitcoin’s mandatory legal-tender status as part of a $1.4bn IMF loan package. The Chivo wallet rollout is being wound down. Despite the policy retreat, authorities report they have not sold any BTC from the national treasury.
Officials also plan “Volcano Bond” and a proposed “Bitcoin City” powered by geothermal energy. The tax stance remains supportive: El Salvador imposes no capital gains tax on Bitcoin or crypto transactions.
For traders, the key focus is price risk versus support. Technical and valuation models in the article warn of a possible deeper Bitcoin correction toward the $50,000 area if key levels fail. The production-cost model puts the average miner cost near $62,650 (near break-even). MVRV and realized-price metrics suggest a deeper-value zone around ~$50.4k, while realized price is near ~$53.6k—levels that historically matter before major cycle bottoms.
Current momentum is bearish: Bitcoin trades around $61.3k (down ~4% on the day). RSI is near oversold (~23.6–23.9), but sellers still control via bearish MACD.
Action levels mentioned: downside confirmation is a daily close below ~$59.1k, strengthening the $50k thesis. Upside invalidation requires a sustained reclaim above ~$64.7k.
Bearish
Although El Salvador’s continued Bitcoin accumulation is fundamentally supportive, the article’s trading takeaway is price-risk: multiple valuation and technical signals point to a potential deeper Bitcoin correction toward the ~$50,000 region if nearby support fails.
Short term, the chart setup described (downtrend, bearish MACD, RSI near oversold) can produce either a relief bounce or a continued sell-off. However, the explicit downside trigger (daily close below ~$59.1k) suggests traders may price in another leg down before dip-buyers step in. This resembles prior bear-market phases where realized-price and MVRV “deep value” zones acted as magnets after support breaks.
Long term, the government’s “buy and hold” stance (7,677 BTC, no reported treasury sales even after legal-tender reversal) can limit extreme downside and help sentiment. But it is not likely to prevent technical downside in the near term, especially with cited macro headwinds (risk appetite pressure) and potential liquidity thinning into summer. Net effect: supportive policy backdrop, but bearish near-term setup dominates the trading signal.