Elliptic: Five exchanges (Bitpapa, ABCeX, Exmo, Rapira, Aifory Pro) facilitating Russia sanctions evasion
Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic says five cryptocurrency platforms — Bitpapa, ABCeX, Exmo, Rapira and Aifory Pro — are enabling ruble-to-crypto conversions and cross-border value flows that help sanctioned Russian actors evade international restrictions. The network activity intensified after the March takedown of sanctioned exchange Garantex and involves tactics such as wallet rotation, shared custodial hot wallets, P2P ruble-crypto trades and virtual USDT payment cards. Key findings: Bitpapa (already OFAC-designated) routes about 9.7% of outgoing funds to sanctioned targets and rotates addresses to frustrate monitoring; ABCeX reportedly operates from Moscow and has processed at least $11 billion with notable flows to Garantex and Aifory Pro; Exmo appears to share hot wallets between its Russia-facing and international services and has routed over $19.5m to sanctioned entities; Rapira (with a Moscow presence) recorded more than $72m in direct transfers to Grinex (Garantex’s successor); Aifory Pro issues USDT virtual cards used to pay for foreign services blocked in Russia. Elliptic warns that several of these platforms are nominally registered offshore but still materially facilitate sanctions circumvention. For traders: expect heightened regulatory and enforcement risk, potential sanction-related delistings or closures, and tighter compliance that could reduce liquidity on P2P and regional venues. The EU is reportedly considering broad restrictions on crypto dealings with Russia, a move that could further reshape flows and counterparty risk. Primary keywords: sanctions evasion, crypto exchanges, Russia, Elliptic. Secondary/semantic keywords included: wallet rotation, P2P ruble trades, OFAC designation, USDT virtual cards, shared hot wallets.
Bearish
News that five named exchanges are materially facilitating sanctions evasion increases regulatory, counterparty and enforcement risk in affected venues. Immediate market effects likely include reduced liquidity and higher risk premia on ruble-linked P2P markets and regional exchange order books as custodial links and hot-wallets are scrutinized or closed. Trading counterparties may face de-risking, which can widen spreads and disrupt on/off-ramps used by market participants. One exchange (Bitpapa) already being OFAC-designated raises the probability of further listings or actions; ongoing EU consideration of broad crypto restrictions with Russia would amplify these pressures. Short-term: heightened volatility and reduced liquidity for assets and rails tied to these platforms (USDT rails and ruble pairs especially). Long-term: persistent compliance tightening could permanently shift flows away from informal P2P channels to regulated venues, increasing operational costs and reducing some regional liquidity, which is negative for traders who rely on those rails. Overall, the net price impact for the affected rails and associated stablecoin usage is likely negative (bearish) until enforcement clarity returns.