ETH/BTC May Have Bottomed — Stablecoin Inflows Support Ethereum Recovery
ETH/BTC appears to have bottomed in April 2025 and is showing signs of stabilization and gradual recovery, echoing the 2019 post-slide pattern, according to market analyst Michaël van de Poppe. Price action has formed higher lows since April, with a low near 0.017 ETH/BTC, a local rally to about 0.043 in August, and a retrace to ~0.034 after an October market pullback. On-chain metrics support a constructive outlook for Ethereum versus Bitcoin: stablecoin supply on Ethereum surged more than 65% in 2025 to roughly $160–$170 billion (DeFiLlama), exceeding the 2021 peak, while Token Terminal reports stablecoin transfers on Ethereum exceeded $8 trillion in Q4. DeFi activity, tokenized real-world assets growth and steady developer activity further underpin Ethereum’s settlement-layer role. At the time of the reports, ETH traded around $3,100–$3,300, briefly crossing its 365-day moving average before pulling back. Sentiment indicators (Santiment) resemble pre-rally conditions. For traders, these signals point to increased dollar-denominated liquidity on Ethereum and a favorable backdrop for ETH relative to BTC, suggesting potential for extended upside if on-chain flows and risk appetite persist.
Bullish
The combined reports point to a bullish outlook for ETH relative to BTC. Technical structure in ETH/BTC shows a likely April 2025 bottom and higher lows since then, indicating a shift from a downtrend to stabilization and potential recovery. Crucially, on-chain fundamentals reinforce this view: a >65% rise in stablecoin supply on Ethereum to a new all-time high and very large stablecoin transfer volumes imply growing dollar liquidity parked on Ethereum’s settlement layer — liquidity that can fuel buying pressure into ETH or DeFi positions. Continued developer activity and growth in tokenized real-world assets add structural demand. Short-term effects: expect increased volatility around key levels (365-day MA, recent highs) as traders react to flows and macro risk appetite; this can produce swift rallies or pullbacks. Medium-to-long term: if stablecoin inflows persist and ETH retains network activity, the balance of probabilities favors further ETH strength versus BTC. Risks: broader market crashes, regulatory shocks to stablecoins, or a sudden drop in on-chain transfers could reverse the bias. Overall, the news increases the likelihood of bullish price action for ETH, especially in ETH/BTC terms, while traders should monitor on-chain flow metrics, stablecoin concentration (USDT share), and macro liquidity conditions.