Analyst: ETH/BTC Ratio Bottomed in April — Stablecoin Surge and On‑Chain Strength Signal Ethereum Outperformance
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe says the ETH/BTC ratio bottomed in April 2025 and is tracing a pattern similar to the 2019 cycle, signaling a potential shift toward an “Ethereum market.” He points to on‑chain fundamentals: stablecoin supply on Ethereum rose more than 65% in 2025 versus earlier levels, DeFiLlama shows stablecoins on Ethereum exceed $163.9 billion (USDT ≈52%), and Token Terminal reports roughly $8 trillion in stablecoin transfers on Ethereum in Q4 2024. Van de Poppe notes the ETH/BTC ratio fell to ~0.017 in April, rallied to ~0.043 in August, then retraced to ~0.034 after an October market pullback. Price action saw ETH briefly test ~$3,300 and cross the 365‑day moving average before sliding to about $3,100 at publication. Santiment adds that investor sentiment mirrors patterns seen before past ETH rallies. Combined, these signals — rising stablecoin liquidity on Ethereum, increasing tokenized real‑world assets (RWAs), and sustained developer activity — present a constructive outlook for ETH relative to BTC. Traders should watch the ETH/BTC ratio, stablecoin flows on Ethereum, and the 365‑day moving average for short‑term entries and manage risk around market‑wide pullbacks.
Bullish
The combined reports point to bullish implications for ETH price relative to BTC. Key bullish drivers: a >65% rise in stablecoin supply on Ethereum in 2025, large stablecoin transfer volume (Token Terminal’s ~ $8 trillion in Q4 2024), and DeFiLlama’s $163.9B stablecoin stock on Ethereum (USDT ~52%). These metrics increase on‑chain liquidity available for DeFi and trading, supporting higher ETH demand. The ETH/BTC ratio chart — bottom in April (~0.017), rally to ~0.043 in August, then retrace to ~0.034 — mirrors historical lead‑up patterns (2019) before sizable ETH rallies, and Santiment’s sentiment data echoes pre‑rally conditions. Price action crossing the 365‑day moving average to ~$3,300, then pulling back to ~$3,100, signals an initial bullish technical shift though with short‑term volatility. For traders: near term, expect oscillations and potential pullbacks (manage risk with stops and position sizing); monitor stablecoin inflows, ETH/BTC ratio continuation above recent highs, and reclaiming the 365‑day MA for confirmation. Long term, continued growth in tokenized RWAs, developer activity, and stablecoin liquidity supports an extended bullish thesis for ETH versus BTC.