ETH futures OI +26% on institutional buying; DApp revenue weak
ETH price held above $2,300 after bouncing from $1,940 lows, while ETH futures open interest (OI) rose 26% to about $25.4B—signalling renewed demand for leveraged positioning.
Institutional accumulation appears to be driving the rebound. US-listed Ether spot ETFs added $248M net inflows over the past 10 days. Bitmine Immersion (BMNR US) also announced an ETH purchase worth $312M; it now holds 4.87M ETH (about $11.46B), although the holdings trade ~13% below the acquisition cost. Ether ETF assets under management were $13.7B, down from $20.5B three months earlier.
However, several indicators suggest traders remain cautious. ETH perpetual futures funding has struggled to stay above 5% since Friday and has dipped below 0% multiple times, implying insufficient bullish conviction versus the cost of leverage. The rally’s failure to reclaim $2,400 coincided with a broad risk-on move as the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high.
Beyond price/derivatives, Ethereum’s on-chain fundamentals look soft. Weekly Ethereum DApp revenue fell to about $11M/week (from ~$24M in early February). The article links this to weaker network activity and intensifying competition from purpose-built chains (e.g., Hyperliquid, Plasma). Despite higher ETH futures activity, derivatives metrics did not fully flip bullish—raising the risk that spot-led gains fade if DApp demand does not recover.
Neutral
偏中性。短期看，ETH期货未平仓量（OI）+26%与现货侧资金回流（ETH现货ETF近10天净流入2.48亿美元、机构/公司增持ETH）共同指向“可能延续”的做多力量，因此对交易情绪有支撑。但中性偏谨慎在于：①ETH永续资金费率未能维持在5%以上，甚至多次跌破0%，说明多头杠杆信心不足、市场定价仍偏保守；②ETH未能收复$2,400，且在大盘上行时发生，暗示ETH可能缺乏独立催化；③最关键的基本面是以太坊DApp收入下滑（约降至1,100万美元/周），而竞争链（如Hyperliquid等）分流需求。类似“现货先行、衍生品未跟上”的阶段，历史上常见于反弹初期：价格可能先企稳，但若资金费率与链上需求无法同步改善，反弹容易震荡甚至回撤。长期仍取决于DApp/链上活动能否改善以及资金费率结构能否转为持续偏多。