ETH price crash 66% from peak as exchange inflows dey slow down
Ethereum (ETH) dey trade near $1,670 after one of e weakest nine-month stretches, wit ETH don drop over 66% from e late-2025 peak near $4,800. Di article talk say ETH still on track for third quarter straight wit double-digit losses; analysts talk about roughly 29% drop in Q1 and still over 20% weakness in Q2.
On-chain activity na di main counter-signal. Analyst Ali Martinez talk say nearly 500,000 ETH (about $800 million) comot from centralized exchanges inside di past seven days. People fit read this as possible accumulation (less supply ready for immediate selling), but Martinez warn say ETH fit still drop more before e form solid bottom. Him downside scenario show say e fit revisit around ~$700 if broader market conditions worsen.
Technicals still bearish. ETH daily chart dey show lower highs/lower lows. RSI dey around 32 (near oversold), but e no dey confirm reversal. MACD still below di signal line, and market never do di capitulation-style volume spike wey normally happen near major bottoms.
Macro catalyst fit affect risk appetite. Trump say possible US–Iran peace deal fit get signed Sunday and fit lead to reopening talks for di Strait of Hormuz; Iran deny di timeline. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe argue say successful deal fit return liquidity to risk assets, including crypto—fit help ETH sentiment even if charts weak.
For traders: ETH dey stuck between accumulation signals and still-bearish market structure, so short-term moves fit depend on risk sentiment and whether exchange outflows continue.
Neutral
News dey mix for ETH: bullish signs dey from reduced sell‑side supply (about 500k ETH wey comot from exchanges in one week), while bearish signs dey from still‑deteriorating price structure (lower highs/lower lows), weak momentum (RSI near oversold but no reversal, MACD still negative), and lack of capitulation volume. This combination historically resemble phases weh accumulation start before clear technical bottom form—often need extra confirmation through price reclaim and stronger volume.
Short term, traders fit see choppy downside‑to‑range action: exchange outflows fit slow selling pressure, but weak technicals mean rallies fit get sold. Long term, if ETH outflows persist and macro sentiment improve (potential U.S.–Iran deal wey ease geopolitical risk), probability of sustained recovery go rise. Conversely, if risk sentiment worsen, the article’s $700 retest scenario suggest downside fit extend even while accumulation dey happen.
Overall, because on‑chain accumulation never yet override bearish technical structure, the expected impact on market stability best categorized as neutral rather than bullish or bearish.