ETH underperforms BTC by 35% as Binance sell pressure rises
Ethereum (ETH) is down more than 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, and analysts warn the ETH/BTC downtrend could persist into 2026.
On the ETH/BTC chart, rallies keep failing below a long-term descending trendline. After the pair retested the line around Aug 2025, it was rejected near the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the 50-month exponential moving average. ETH/BTC then broke below the 20-month EMA support around 0.034 BTC, suggesting sellers still control momentum.
Exchange flows point to stronger sell-side pressure. Binance ETH reserves climbed to about 3.62 million ETH (around 24.6% of ETH held on exchanges), while Binance BTC reserves declined, a pattern often read as ETH becoming easier to sell as BTC liquidity tightens.
Fundamentally, the article ties ETH weakness to fading momentum behind Ethereum’s “ultrasound money” narrative. BTC strength is linked to institutional accumulation and increasing Wall Street exposure.
Key levels traders are watching: ETH/BTC downside risk toward ~0.0176 BTC in 2026 (about 40% lower), near the 2020 cycle bottom. ETH/BTC’s bearish setup makes positioning and risk management around 0.034 BTC support critical.
Bearish
Both articles converge on a bearish read-through for ETH versus BTC. The ETH/BTC chart remains capped by a long-term descending trendline, and the pair has already broken below 20-month EMA support near 0.034 BTC—often a sign that downside momentum can extend.
On top of the technical picture, the exchange-flow signal is worsening for ETH: Binance ETH reserves are rising while Binance BTC reserves are falling. Interpreted together, this implies more ETH is available for sale, while BTC liquidity may be tightening—conditions that typically pressure ETH relative to BTC.
Fundamental narrative divergence adds to the pressure. Weakness in Ethereum’s “ultrasound money” momentum contrasts with stronger BTC demand tied to institutions and Wall Street exposure.
For traders, this combination increases the probability of further ETH/BTC drift lower in the short term, with a monitored downside zone around 0.0176 BTC in 2026. The likely impact on overall market stability is limited to the ETH/BTC relationship, not a direct thesis that BTC must fall.