Ether drops to $1.8K as onchain and technical signals point to further downside
Ethereum (ETH) fell below $1,900 to about $1,830 amid a broad market pullback, extending a 30-day loss of roughly 38%. Onchain and technical indicators signal continued downside risk: ETH is trading below its realized price (current spot ~$1,830 vs. realized price ~$2,380), a historically bearish configuration that often precedes capitulation. The 50-week EMA (~$3,017) remains just above the 100-week EMA (~$2,920); past bear markets did not find a bottom until the 50-week crossed below the 100-week. Traders have identified a daily bear-flag with targets near $1,400–$1,500, and some models suggest a possible drop toward $1,100 if network activity and institutional demand continue to decline. Market flow data show sustained selling pressure: the Ethereum Coinbase Premium is deeply negative (around -0.09), signaling US-based selling, and US spot ETH ETFs recorded five consecutive weeks of outflows totaling nearly $1.3 billion. Global Ethereum investment products saw over $36.5 million in outflows last week. Key takeaways for traders: bearish technical structure, onchain metrics pointing to capitulation risk, heavy US retail and institutional selling, and potential targets in the $1,100–$1,500 range. This article is informational and not investment advice.
Bearish
Multiple technical and onchain signals point toward continued downside for ETH. Spot price trading below the realized price places a significant portion of holders underwater and historically precedes capitulation phases. The 50-week EMA sitting just above the 100-week EMA suggests further downside until a bearish EMA cross resolves, as seen in prior bear markets (2018, 2022). Chart patterns (daily bear flag) and trader targets near $1,400–$1,500 — with some models extending to $1,100 — provide concrete short-term levels traders may watch. Fund flows reinforce the negative bias: a deeply negative Coinbase premium indicates US-origin selling pressure, and five consecutive weeks of US spot-ETH ETF outflows (~$1.3B) show both retail and institutional selling. Together, these factors increase the probability of short-term acceleration to the downside, higher volatility, and potential capitulation. For traders: consider tight risk management, monitor ETF flows and Coinbase premium for changes in selling pressure, and watch the 50/100-week EMA relationship for signs of a longer-term trend shift. In the longer term, a recovery would likely require resumption of inflows, improved network activity, and a reversal in key moving averages — conditions not currently met.