Ethereum Eyes Break Above $3,063 as Whales Accumulate, ETF Inflows Support Rally
Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded ~14% from the Nov. 21 low of $2,623 to trade near $3,047 and faces immediate resistance at $3,063. On-chain data show sustained accumulation by large-holder cohorts (10k–100k ETH) since June while mid-tier holders (100–10k ETH) have trimmed positions. Recent ETH spot ETF activity — including a reported ~ $200m surge last week and roughly $1.5bn YTD institutional inflows — has helped underpin demand but did not fully offset broader November outflows. Technicals: the weekly bullish structure remains intact above ~$2,100, while the 4‑hour structure is mixed-to-bearish with muted On‑Balance Volume and low trading volume, indicating buyers lack conviction. A clean breakout and retest above $3,063 with volume/OBV confirmation would be a high-probability buy signal targeting the $3,400–3,500 supply zone; failure to break or a rejection near $3,063 risks a pullback to near-term supports at $2,985 and $2,765 or a deeper weekly-structure test toward $2,100. Key trade takeaways: watch volume and OBV for breakout validation, monitor whale balance trends and ETF flows for sustained demand, use $3,063 as the short-term pivot and $2,100 weekly structure plus $2,985/$2,765 supports as risk anchors. This summary is for informational purposes and not financial advice.
Bullish
The combined reports point to a cautiously bullish outlook for ETH. Positive factors: a ~14% rebound from the November low, concentrated accumulation by large whale cohorts since June, and renewed spot ETF inflows (including a notable ~$200m weekly injection and ~ $1.5bn YTD institutional inflows) which provide tangible demand. Technically, the weekly uptrend remains intact above the ~$2,100 structural level, meaning broader bullish orderflow is still possible. Offsetting risks: low trading volume and muted OBV signal weak buying conviction on the short-term move; the 4‑hour structure is not yet decisively bullish and immediate resistance at $3,063 has produced a rejection. For traders this implies: short-term momentum depends on a confirmed breakout above $3,063 with accompanying volume/OBV; a successful break and retest targets the $3,400–3,500 supply zone and supports a bullish trading bias. Failure to break or a sharp rejection would likely bring ETH back to near-term supports ($2,985, $2,765) and could re-test the weekly structure near $2,100, shifting risk toward bearish outcomes. Overall, positives (whale accumulation + ETF demand + intact weekly structure) outweigh short-term volume/structure risks, so the expected price impact is mildly to moderately bullish provided breakout confirmation arrives.