Ethereum has 96 hours to avoid its worst annual performance since 2018
Ethereum (ETH) is at risk of recording one of its most bearish yearly performances if December closes in the red. ETH is trading around $2,929, down about 13.92% over the past 12 months. Analyst Ted Pillows warned that a negative December would mark the ninth losing month for ETH in 2025 — a pattern only seen during the 2018 bear market — and would mean ETH underperformed for three quarters of the year. Trading volume has fallen roughly 27.6% to $12.19 billion, reflecting cautious market participation. Contributing to negative sentiment, a wallet linked to long-dormant investor Erik Voorhees reportedly sold $13.42 million in ETH, and Samson Mow’s JAN3 liquidated Bitmine’s ETH holdings as the firm shifts focus to Bitcoin. Despite the weak close to 2025, some community members expect a bullish rebound in 2026. Key data points: current price ~$2,929; 24h range ~$2,895–$2,984; 24h change -1.13%; 27.6% drop in volume to $12.19B; less than 96 hours left in December to avert the historical downside.
Bearish
The news is bearish. ETH is close to completing a highly negative yearly record: nearly 14% annual decline, nine losing months if December ends red, and significantly lower trading volume (-27.6%), all of which point to weak demand and reduced liquidity. On-chain selling by large holders — a reactivated wallet tied to Erik Voorhees dumping $13.42M and JAN3/Bitmine liquidations — directly increases sell-side pressure and can trigger further short-term declines as traders react. Historically, similar concentrated sell-offs and low volume during year-end have led to amplified volatility and downside (e.g., 2018 bear market dynamics). Short-term implications: elevated downside risk, potential for increased volatility and lower support levels near current price range; traders may prefer to reduce long exposure, tighten stops, or look for shorting opportunities. Long-term implications: fundamentals (DeFi, ETH adoption, upgrades) could still support recovery, and community optimism for 2026 suggests possible rebound, but sustained sell pressure and weak monthly performance raise uncertainty — investors should watch volume recovery, large-holder flows, and macro liquidity events before increasing long positions.