Santiment: ETH deposits top 50% on paper — CoinShares: active stake ~31%
Santiment reported that deposits to Ethereum’s staking deposit contract cumulatively equal about 50.18% of ETH supply (≈80 million ETH), a symbolic breach of the 50% level. CoinShares and other analysts disputed this figure, noting the deposit contract records lifetime deposits and does not reflect withdrawals enabled by the Shanghai/Capella upgrade. After reconciling withdrawals, validator exits and withdrawals data (from sources such as Ethplorer and CryptoQuant), CoinShares estimates the net active stake — the ETH actually securing the network — is roughly 37 million ETH, or about 30.8% of circulating supply. The dispute is methodological: Santiment reports gross cumulative deposits, while CoinShares reports net active stake that subtracts withdrawals and inactive/exited validators. For traders, the distinction matters. Gross deposit figures can overstate ETH committed to network security and understate liquid circulating supply, which affects supply-based models, ETF flows, staking-linked risk assessments and liquidity forecasts. However, a ~31% active stake still represents substantial committed capital, supporting network security. Traders should prefer validator- and withdrawal-aware metrics (net active stake) when modelling supply shocks, staking-related sell pressure, or institutional exposure.
Neutral
The news is mainly methodological rather than signaling an immediate change in supply or a new catalyst. Santiment’s 50.18% figure is a gross, cumulative measure and can be misread as implying more ETH is locked from circulation than is actually securing the network. CoinShares’ correction (net active stake ≈31%) reduces perceived locked supply and implies more liquid ETH could be available, which can dampen bullish narratives that rely on a >50% locked supply. Short-term price impact is likely limited: the update corrects analyst models and may alter trader assumptions about available supply and potential selling pressure, but it does not itself change on-chain balances or economic policy. Over the medium term, clearer use of net active stake metrics can improve pricing models for staking products, ETF flows and liquidity risk assessments. Overall, the story reduces an overstatement of locked supply (tempering extreme bullish interpretations) while confirming substantial committed stake remains, so market reaction should be measured and data-driven rather than directional.