Ethereum Drops Below $1,800 as Standard Chartered Cuts to $4,000
Ethereum (ETH) slipped below $1,800 and is trading around $1,775, with an RSI(14) near 18.5 (deep oversold) but a bearish technical structure.
Fundamental headlines also turned softer. Standard Chartered cut its 2026 ETH price target by 47% to $4,000 (from $7,500) while keeping a 2030 forecast of $40,000. The bank described this as a “cyclical reset,” pointing to near-record ETH transaction activity and ETH-denominated TVL, even after ETH trades ~65% below its August 2025 peak.
On-chain/corporate flow added pressure: a wallet tied to Nasdaq-listed treasury firm FG Nexus transferred another 10,000 ETH (about $17.8M at current prices), extending prior sales of 21,000+ ETH for ~$55M. FG Nexus accumulated 50,770 ETH in Aug–Sep 2025, implying large unrealized losses as ETH moved toward ~$1.7k.
The article also flags L2 consolidation risk after the shutdown of Zero Network, with Base and Arbitrum still dominating L2 DeFi TVL (over 80%), while smaller rollups see declining bridge deposits.
Trading levels referenced: support around $1,770 then $1,718; resistance near $1,826, then $1,893 and $2,003.
Bearish
The near-term read is bearish because multiple catalysts point to selling pressure and softer expectations. ETH is trading below $1,800 while Standard Chartered cut its 2026 ETH target to $4,000, reinforcing a lower path for the next cycle. At the same time, FG Nexus’ additional 10,000 ETH transfer is another example of corporate treasury distribution rather than accumulation—similar to past cycles where treasury unwinds near prior highs tend to cap rallies and increase volatility.
That said, the article also notes ETH is deeply oversold (RSI ~18.5), which can trigger short-covering bounces. In past downturns, “oversold + bearish narrative” often produces a reflex rally that fades unless price reclaims key resistance levels (here ~$1,826) and holds above the next support ($1,718).
Longer-term, the bank’s unchanged 2030 forecast and claims of strong ETH network usage/TVL argue against a structural collapse thesis. The risk is more about capital rotation within L2s: concentration in Base/Arbitrum and declining deposits in smaller rollups can reduce speculative appetite until adoption broadens.