ETH breaks $2,800 support — technical and on‑chain signals point to up to 22% downside
Ethereum (ETH) has broken the key $2,800 support after a >10% decline over three days and is trading near $2,700. Technical patterns — a broken descending triangle and a breached symmetrical triangle — converge on a measured target around $2,100, implying roughly 20–22% downside from current levels. The $2,500 area, which aligns with the 200‑week simple moving average (SMA), is the next meaningful support. Momentum is weakening: RSI fell from about 68 to ~34, and the 111‑day moving average has crossed below the 200‑day moving average, a bearish configuration that preceded major drawdowns in 2018 and 2022. On‑chain metrics also turned more negative: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) moved from the “anxiety” band into “fear,” historically associated with the start or deepening of bear phases. Veteran trader commentary (Peter Brandt) underscores that bears strengthened after the break and that bulls now bear the burden of proof to reclaim support. For traders: elevated short‑term downside risk suggests considering tightened stops, lower position sizing, and watching $2,500 then $2,100 as key support zones; this is market analysis, not investment advice. Primary keywords: Ethereum, ETH price, support break, descending triangle, NUPL, moving average death cross.
Bearish
The combined technical and on‑chain signals point to elevated downside risk for ETH in the short to medium term. Price has broken a key $2,800 support and violated both a descending triangle and a symmetrical triangle, producing a measured target near $2,100 (≈20–22% downside). The $2,500 zone (200‑week SMA) is the next major support; if that fails, downside acceleration toward the measured target becomes more likely. Momentum indicators are weakening — RSI collapsed from ~68 to ~34 and the 111‑day MA has crossed below the 200‑day MA, a bearish configuration that preceded larger drawdowns in prior cycles. On‑chain NUPL moving into the “fear” band reinforces the bearish outlook historically associated with bear phases. Trader commentary noting that bears strengthened after the break further biases market psychology toward selling pressure. For traders, the immediate implications are higher probability of further losses, increased volatility, and a lower risk/reward for initiating fresh long positions until price reclaims $2,800–$2,500 with convincing volume. Longer term, if ETH finds support and on‑chain metrics stabilize, the principal trend could recover, but current evidence favors short‑to‑medium‑term downside risk.