Ethereum Price Falls Below Major Investors’ Average Acquisition Cost
Ethereum (ETH) spot price has dropped below the realized (on‑chain) acquisition cost of large holders managing at least 100,000 ETH, estimated around $2,075. This places those major investors — many institutional wallets representing positions often exceeding $200 million — in short‑term unrealized losses. Analysts compare the move to a similar phase after the September 2018 peak, when ETH traded below large‑holder costs for roughly six months during a prolonged correction and consolidation. CryptoQuant and other on‑chain observers suggest these price bands may be attractive for long‑term accumulation strategies, noting that large investors’ historically higher average entry costs reflect sustained buying over time. The report frames the breach of realized cost as a structural market signal rather than mere volatility, potentially marking a transition phase that could precede eventual recovery. Disclaimer: this is not investment advice.
Neutral
The breach of major holders’ realized cost is a mixed signal. Bearish aspects: large institutional holders are now in short-term unrealized losses, which can increase selling pressure, reduce risk appetite, and prolong downward momentum — as seen when ETH traded below large‑holder costs after the 2018 peak for ~6 months. That can amplify short-term volatility and hurt market sentiment. Bullish aspects: historically these realized‑cost bands have acted as accumulation zones for long‑term investors; on‑chain analysts (e.g., CryptoQuant) flag such levels as attractive for dollar‑cost averaging, which can set the foundation for a multi‑month recovery. Net impact: neutral — likely to produce short‑term negative pressure and heightened volatility, but not an unequivocal bearish shock unless accompanied by macro shocks, exchange outflows, or liquidations. Traders should watch inflows/outflows from large wallets, exchange reserve changes, and funding rates; a sustained decline in exchange balances and rising accumulation by long‑term holders would be bullish signals, while rising exchange inflows and leverage would support further downside.