Ethereum enters ‘buy zone’ as MVRV falls below 0.8
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,150 after new market data signalled a potential bullish setup. Analysts highlighted that ETH’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) has fallen below 0.8, a level associated with past cycle bottoms.
Institutional/treasury activity is adding support. Arkham Research reported Bitmine bought about $140.74M worth of ETH over the past seven days, lifting its holdings to roughly $10.03B. Bitmine now controls around 3.86% of ETH’s circulating supply, with a stated 5% accumulation target.
Demand signals are mixed. CryptoQuant data showed Coinbase Premium Index at about -0.0149, implying Binance priced ETH higher than Coinbase and pointing to softer U.S. spot demand. Traders are watching whether the premium moves back toward zero or turns positive, which would suggest stronger buying support.
Commentary from analyst Ali Martinez framed the move as a potential “generational buy zone.” He noted that similar MVRV readings preceded large rallies in 2018, 2020, and 2022, with subsequent gains ranging from 149% to 587%. ETH rebounded roughly 7% Monday, briefly reaching $2,186, and was around $2,152 at the time of reporting.
Key watchpoints for traders: follow-through in ETH price around $2,150, whether Coinbase premium normalizes, and whether institutional buy-side demand (e.g., treasury accumulation) continues.
Bullish
看涨（bullish）。核心逻辑在于：MVRV跌破0.8这一估值型指标通常更接近历史底部区域；同时出现了可量化的资金库/机构增持信号（Bitmine在一周内净买入约1.41亿美元ETH，并向5%供应目标推进）。
历史对照上，文章引用的2018、2020、2022周期底部案例都表现为：当MVRV落入类似区间后，市场往往先经历反弹，再出现更大级别的趋势修复（文中提到后续涨幅范围约149%–587%）。这类“估值见底+持续买盘”的组合，在短期会提升抄底资金的信心；在中长期则更利于形成支撑位，从而降低急跌时的筹码抛压。
但需要注意交易上的制约因素：Coinbase Premium仍为负（约-0.0149），表明美国现货需求尚未完全跟上。若该溢价持续为负，可能限制反弹的高度或导致价格在区间内反复。相反，如果溢价回归0附近甚至转正，往往会为价格提供更强的共振支撑，推动从“反弹”向“趋势”过渡。因此在短线，关注2150美元附近的承接；在中线，关注溢价修复与机构买盘是否延续。