ETH to Face Choppy September, Q4 Rally Anticipated
Ethereum closed August at $4,390—its highest monthly close since November 2021—but a pullback to $4,250 has sparked concerns. Market watcher Cipher X notes that September historically delivers an average 6.1% loss for Ethereum, with five double-digit declines since 2016. However, October and November have averaged gains of 4.7% and 7.8%, respectively. Bitfinex adds that September may mark a cyclical low before institutional accumulation and structural drivers fuel a Q4 recovery, highlighted by only 18.3 million ETH on exchanges. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe predicts a 10%–20% correction to the $3,900–$3,400 range—an ideal accumulation zone ahead of the next rally. Daan Crypto Trades warns of a retest of the $4,300–$4,500 range lows near the 200-day MA and EMA, while Merlijn The Trader sees a multi-year trendline launchpad toward $7,000 on breakout. As of writing, Ethereum trades at $4,268, down 4% in 24 hours. Traders should prepare for choppy September action but position for a potential Q4 upside.
Neutral
The article outlines a likely short-term downturn for Ethereum in September—historically its weakest month—driven by market pullbacks and potential range retests. However, strong institutional demand, low exchange supply, and analysts’ forecasts of a Q4 rebound balance that negativity. Mixed signals on timing and magnitude of price moves suggest a neutral overall impact: traders may prepare for choppy short-term trading while positioning for longer-term upside.