Ethereum Dips Below $5K as ETF Outflows and Futures Surge
Ethereum attempted to break $5,000 on August 24, reaching a high of $4,955 before retracing to trade between $4,209 and $4,797. Recent weak U.S. employment data have raised hopes for Fed rate cuts in September, yet Ethereum fell 3.67% to $4,295 in the past 24 hours. CryptoQuant reports a net futures selling pressure of $570 million, suggesting a local peak and limiting short-term upside. Meanwhile, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a record $447 million outflow on September 5, alongside $160 million in Bitcoin ETF withdrawals. Glassnode notes that over half of ETF inflows coincided with rising CME open interest, indicating active arbitrage strategies. Additionally, an ICO investor recently staked 150,000 ETH (approx. $656 million), underscoring long-term holding patterns. Analysts now forecast a cooling period driven by heavy futures selling, ETF withdrawals, and sophisticated arbitrage.
Bearish
The combination of significant futures net selling (–$570 million) and large ETF outflows ($447 million for Ethereum, $160 million for Bitcoin) signals waning bullish momentum. Historically, heavy futures selling near local peaks precedes price corrections, while institutional profit-taking via ETFs often leads to short-term pullbacks. Arbitrage strategies highlighted by Glassnode suggest market participants are exploiting inefficiencies rather than placing directional bets, further muting upside. Although long-term holders (e.g., the ICO investor staking 150,000 ETH) indicate confidence, the immediate impact is a cooling phase. In the short term, Ethereum is likely to trade sideways or decline until selling pressure eases. Over the long term, much will depend on macro factors—particularly U.S. rate cuts and institutional re-entry—but current indicators point to a bearish sentiment in the coming weeks.