Ethereum ETF Outflows Clash With Record ETH Staking
US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $88.6 million in net outflows on October 26, led by $104.7 million withdrawn from BlackRock’s ETHA. Fidelity’s fund recorded $16.1 million in inflows, while cumulative net flows across the funds remained positive at about $12.66 billion.
At the same time, a record 43.8 million ETH was staked by the end of September—nearly 36% of the total supply. Staking inflows reached 7.96 million ETH in the first nine months of 2026, potentially reducing the liquid ETH available to trade. Average annualized staking yields fell to 2.63% in the third quarter, from 2.81% in the previous quarter.
The Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting is another near-term catalyst. Most economists surveyed by Reuters expect rates to remain at 3.75%–4.00%, but inflation has raised expectations of a possible December increase. ETF flows, ETH staking levels and the Fed’s outlook are likely to shape Ethereum’s near-term direction.
Neutral
The signals are mixed, supporting a neutral near-term assessment. Ethereum ETF outflows indicate softer institutional demand and could weigh on sentiment if withdrawals continue. However, cumulative ETF flows remain strongly positive, and record staking removes a sizable share of ETH from the readily tradable supply, which could provide support if demand improves.
The Federal Reserve adds uncertainty. A hawkish outlook or renewed rate-hike expectations could lift Treasury yields and pressure risk assets, including ETH. A less hawkish message could improve risk appetite and help ETF flows recover. In past crypto market episodes, ETF flow reversals have affected short-term sentiment, while staking and other supply-side changes have generally acted more gradually. Traders may therefore watch daily ETF flows, ETH exchange liquidity, staking deposits and Fed commentary. Over the longer term, sustained staking alongside renewed ETF inflows could tighten supply relative to demand; persistent outflows and restrictive monetary policy would weaken that potential support. Neither outcome is assured.