Ethereum exchange supply falls to 12.5M while Tom Lee calls $3K ‘undervalued’
Ethereum (ETH) shows mixed on‑chain signals: mid‑size whales (1–10K ETH) have been selling into the recent price top while the largest holders (10K+ ETH) remain largely neutral. Concurrently, ETH held on centralized exchanges has dropped from ~14.5 million in late July to about 12.5 million ETH, indicating sustained outflows to long‑term wallets and reduced immediate sell pressure. Despite high valuation metrics — Ethereum’s fully diluted P/S has repeatedly spiked above 1,000x at times — the number of addresses has surpassed 250 million, suggesting investors increasingly view ETH as a long‑term settlement/utility asset rather than a revenue multiple‑driven tech stock. Crypto analyst Tom Lee (Bitmine) argues $3,000 for ETH is “grossly undervalued,” projecting a multi‑year path to $12K (with upside scenarios to $22K–$62K) based on long‑term averages. Key data points: exchange supply ≈12.5M ETH, large‑holder selling pressure concentrated in 1–10K ETH cohort, total addresses >250M, recurring spikes in P/S multiples. Traders should note the short‑term selling from mid‑size whales may cap immediate momentum, while falling exchange balances and bullish long‑term narratives (and price targets from prominent analysts) support a constructive medium‑to‑long term outlook for ETH.
Bullish
Net flow off exchanges (from ~14.5M to ~12.5M ETH) reduces immediate available sell liquidity, which is historically bullish because it constrains supply available for quick liquidation. Rising active addresses (>250M) and investor framing of ETH as a settlement/utility asset support longer‑term demand. Countervailing near‑term pressure comes from mid‑size whales (1–10K ETH) selling into recent highs, which can cap rallies and increase short‑term volatility. Tom Lee’s high long‑term price targets (median $12K, upside $22K–$62K) reinforce bullish sentiment among longer‑horizon investors but do not guarantee near‑term moves. In past cycles, sustained exchange outflows preceded multi‑month rallies (reduced sell liquidity), while concentrated profit‑taking by mid‑tier holders often produced short corrections. Therefore, expect short‑term choppy price action due to realized profits by mid‑size whales, but a bullish medium‑to‑long‑term bias driven by declining exchange supply, growing holder base, and bullish narratives/forecasts.