Ethereum Eyes $4,400 Resistance: Breakout to $4,800 or Pullback?
Ethereum is testing the key $4,400 resistance after a strong rally from $2,400. Long-term on-chain metrics show the all-exchange Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) declining since 2022, accompanied by sustained exchange outflows and whale withdrawals, signaling accumulation. Conversely, Binance-specific ESR has risen since early 2025 and leveraged futures positions are climbing, raising short-term sell-side pressure. The daily RSI sits around 71, indicating overbought conditions. Fibonacci extensions highlight $4,302 as the next hurdle and $4,886 as the longer-term target. High-density liquidity clusters between $4,300 and $4,400 pose a risk zone. A decisive break above $4,400 could trigger short liquidations and propel Ethereum toward $4,800. Failure to clear this level may lead to profit-taking and a pullback to $4,000 support. Traders should monitor on-chain divergences, leverage levels, RSI readings, and netflows for clearer breakout or breakdown signals.
Bullish
The combined analysis highlights a strong accumulation trend in Ethereum, driven by declining all-exchange ESR, sustained outflows, and whale withdrawals. These factors support a bullish breakout scenario. Rising Binance-specific ESR, overbought RSI, and dense liquidity clusters signal possible short-term volatility or pullbacks. However, a decisive break above $4,400 is likely to trigger short liquidations and drive price toward $4,800, outweighing downside risks. In the short term, traders should brace for volatility around resistance; in the long term, on-chain accumulation trends underpin a bullish outlook.