On‑Chain Signals Suggest Ethereum May Be Entering a Market Bottom
On-chain metrics indicate Ethereum may be entering a market bottom. Blockchain analytics show the Ethereum MVRV‑Z score at -0.42, a level historically associated with capitulation and undervaluation (past lows: -0.76 in Dec 2018; deep negatives in 2022). Analysts including Alphractal and trader Michaël van de Poppe interpret the reading as a potential accumulation zone rather than a guaranteed trough. Complementary on-chain indicators cited are exchange netflow, entity‑adjusted dormancy and network profit/loss (NPL). Implications: ETH acting as a bellwether could restore confidence across altcoins if sustained recovery follows, aided by network upgrades and Layer‑2 scaling progress. Risks remain—macro headwinds, regulatory uncertainty and the MVRV‑Z not yet at historic extremes—so strategies suggested include dollar‑cost averaging and watching for confirming signals (MVRV‑Z reversal toward zero, falling exchange inflows, break of technical resistance). This probabilistic signal favors cautious accumulation for traders who match exposure to risk tolerance and time horizon.
Bullish
The article frames the current MVRV‑Z reading (-0.42) and supporting on‑chain signals as indicative of capitulation and a potential accumulation zone rather than an immediate reversal. Historically, similar negative MVRV‑Z extremes (2018, 2022) preceded significant multi‑year recoveries for ETH. For traders, this creates a higher probability of upside over medium to long term if selling pressure has indeed exhausted. Short‑term volatility and retests of support remain likely—MVRV‑Z is not at its all‑time low and macro/regulatory risks could push prices lower—so immediate price action could be choppy. However, the combination of undervaluation signal, network upgrade progress and the role of ETH as a sector bellwether supports a cautiously bullish outlook: traders may favor staged accumulation (DCA), small position entries, and monitoring confirming metrics (decreasing exchange inflows, MVRV‑Z rebound, NPL improvement). This mirrors trader behavior after previous capitulation phases, where early accumulation yielded outsized returns once a sustainable uptrend developed.