Record $14B Bitcoin Quarterly and $3.9B June 20 Crypto Options Expiry to Drive Volatility
Deribit data shows this Friday’s quarterly Bitcoin options expiry hits a record $14 billion notional, with a put/call ratio of 0.7 and a max pain point at $100 000. On June 20, roughly $3.9 billion of crypto options contracts expire, including 34 000 Bitcoin options ($3.3 billion) and 215 000 Ethereum options ($546 million). Bitcoin’s put/call ratio stands at 1.16, max pain at $106 000, with open interest clustered between $115 000 and $140 000 strikes. Ethereum’s ratio is 0.68, max pain at $2 600. Derivatives provider Greeks Live notes a predominantly bearish tone, as traders eye support at $104 000 and $100 000 amid Middle East tensions. With the total crypto market cap down 2% to $3.37 trillion, Bitcoin near $104 600 and Ethereum above $2 500, these large expiries could spark heightened short-term volatility despite a range-bound spot market.
Neutral
The record $14 billion quarterly expiry and the $3.9 billion June 20 options expiry concentrate significant open interest around key strikes and max pain points for BTC and ETH. Such large expiries often trigger short-term volatility as traders adjust positions, especially with bearish sentiment and geopolitical risks. However, the underlying spot market remains range-bound, suggesting these events will cause spikes in trading activity rather than a sustained directional move, making the overall impact neutral.