Ethereum’s Cycle Profit Metric Stays Compressed, ETH MVRV Still Deep Negative
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode says Ethereum has not reached a key bull-market profitability milestone this cycle. The share of ETH supply in profit by more than 300% has fallen to about 11%, down from much higher levels seen in prior bullish phases.
Glassnode notes this “3x profit” supply ratio typically crossed ~50% in earlier cycles, but in the current cycle it has failed to break 30%. The firm concludes ETH’s profitability profile has fundamentally compressed relative to past cycles.
A second dataset from Santiment using the MVRV Ratio (30-day, tracking buyer profitability) shows losses remain significant after the market drawdown. The 30-day MVRV is around -10% for BTC and -12% for ETH, indicating sellers may eventually exhaust capitulation pressure, but recovery is still incomplete for recent buyers.
Price-wise, the article says ETH briefly neared $1,500 before rebounding to roughly $1,680.
For traders, the key takeaway is that Ethereum’s on-chain “in-profit supply” and 30-day MVRV both suggest weaker hold-cycle profitability than in previous uptrends, which can translate into choppier rallies and higher sensitivity to macro/market-wide risk appetite.
Bearish
Glassnode’s key metric—ETH supply in >300% profit—has dropped to ~11% and has not crossed the ~30% or historical ~50% thresholds seen in prior bull phases. That usually implies fewer holders are deeply “in the money,” which can reduce the likelihood of sustained, self-reinforcing upside because less capital is anchored in strong paper gains.
Santiment’s 30-day MVRV remaining around -12% for ETH reinforces this: recent buyers are still underwater. Historically, when MVRV stays negative for extended periods, rallies often face overhead supply (early losses returning to break-even becomes harder), leading to choppy price action rather than clean trend continuation.
Near-term, ETH may still bounce as capitulation sellers exhaust, but the compressed profitability profile suggests less room for momentum breakouts. Over the long run, if the “3x profit” supply ratio starts rising meaningfully and 30-day MVRV trends toward zero/positive, the market would look more similar to prior successful cycles—supporting a more durable bullish turn.