Ethereum Q3 Rally Ends Losing Streak but Faces Resistance
Ethereum (ETH) has risen about 58% in the third quarter, potentially ending its first-ever three-quarter losing streak. ETH fell roughly 29% in Q4 2025, 30% in Q1 2026 and 26% in Q2 2026. However, the quarter had more than two weeks remaining, leaving the gain vulnerable to further volatility.
ETH was trading near $2,510, up about 1.34% on the day, after rebounding from a September low of approximately $2,061. The price has moved above its 200-day moving average and is testing resistance near $2,566. A sustained break above that level could expose $2,800-$3,000. Key downside levels are $2,141 and the September low near $2,061.
Despite the Ethereum rally, market signals remain mixed. Retail sentiment is bearish, while ETH remains down about 18% year to date and more than 42% over 12 months. Bitmine Immersion Technologies reported holding 5,929,198 ETH, equivalent to about 4.9% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.
Bitmine chairman Tom Lee expects strong crypto demand into the fourth quarter, citing institutional investment, the possible passage of the CLARITY Act and Federal Reserve policy. These are forecasts, not confirmed catalysts. Traders should monitor resistance, support and macroeconomic developments before treating the Ethereum rally as a confirmed trend reversal.
Neutral
The market impact is neutral because Ethereum’s strong quarterly recovery is offset by unresolved bearish signals. A roughly 58% Q3 gain and a move above the 200-day moving average may attract momentum traders and improve sentiment in the short term. A break above $2,566 could support a move towards $2,800-$3,000.
However, ETH remains down sharply over the past year and is still negative year to date. Bearish retail sentiment, resistance near $2,566 and the need to hold $2,141-$2,061 indicate that the rally has not yet confirmed a durable trend reversal. A failure at resistance could trigger profit-taking and renewed selling.
Institutional accumulation by Bitmine is a longer-term positive signal, but its effect may be limited because the company’s holdings do not guarantee sustained market demand. Tom Lee’s outlook depends on potential catalysts, including the CLARITY Act and Federal Reserve policy, which remain uncertain. Similar to previous periods when Ethereum ended consecutive quarterly declines, a positive quarter can mark a relief rally without immediately establishing a lasting bull market. Traders should therefore watch volume, support levels, macroeconomic policy and Bitcoin-led market direction before increasing directional exposure.