Ethereum Cost Basis and Exchange Flows Signal Mixed Sentiment as Price Surges Above Support Levels
Ethereum (ETH) has experienced significant price volatility, with recent on-chain data highlighting critical investor cost basis levels. In the earlier period, Ethereum traded notably below major investor cost basis points, with most investors holding at a loss except for mega whales (holding 100,000+ ETH), whose realized price was $1,290. This raised concerns about potential selling pressure or accumulation at these lower levels, potentially signaling increased volatility or a short-term bearish outlook.
However, the latest data reveals a reversal: ETH has surged by 56% over the past month, gaining nearly $1,000 in a week. ETH now trades well above most holders’ average cost basis, with wallets holding 1,000–10,000 ETH averaging $2,196, 10,000–100,000 ETH at $1,994, and mega whales at $1,222. The next key support is at $2,225. Analysts suggest if ETH dips below this, volatility could spike, but if support holds, upside momentum may continue. Positive funding rates and over $1.2 billion withdrawn from exchanges signal reduced sell pressure and growing investor confidence.
Traders should monitor cost basis zones and exchange flows as key indicators for ETH support and sentiment shifts. The shift from losses to strong gains marks a notable change in market outlook for Ethereum.
Bullish
Initially, Ethereum was positioned below key investor cost basis levels, indicating widespread unrealized losses and a risk of further sell-offs, which could have implied a bearish or volatile short-term market environment. However, the rapid price recovery, with ETH now well above these cost basis levels for most holders and significant outflows from exchanges, suggests renewed investor confidence and reduced selling pressure. The positive funding rates and strong exchange withdrawals reinforce a bullish outlook, implying that key support levels are likely to hold. Historically, such conditions have marked the start of sustained upward trends, making the current sentiment favor continued gains unless critical support levels are breached.