Ethereum breaks falling wedge as exchange reserves hit multi-year low
Ethereum (ETH) has confirmed a bullish reversal after breaking out of a falling-wedge pattern on the daily chart and reclaiming the $3,000 area. ETH rose about 7% over the past week, recovering from a monthly low of $2,680 on Nov. 21 to trade near $3,013. Key drivers: exchange reserves have dropped sharply — CryptoQuant shows on-exchange ETH fell from ~20.9M in early July to ~16.8M — reducing immediate sell pressure; community momentum around the Fusaka upgrade (potentially Dec. 3) addressing rollup data availability; and renewed inflows into U.S. spot ETH ETFs (roughly $236M net this week after prior outflows). Technical outlook: a confirmed wedge breakout suggests a shift toward bullish bias; the 200-day moving average near $3,096 is the next resistance, with a clean break potentially targeting $3,600 (61.8% Fibonacci). Conversely, failure to hold $3,000 risks a drop toward $2,750 (38.2% Fibonacci). Market participants and institutional accumulation (e.g., BitMine purchases) add to the positive bias. Disclosure: not investment advice.
Bullish
The article combines multiple bullish signals: a confirmed technical breakout (falling-wedge) on the daily chart, sharply declining on-exchange supply, ETF inflows and upgrade-driven narrative. Historically, shrinking exchange reserves reduce immediate sell-side liquidity, which has correlated with upward price pressure in prior ETH and BTC cycles. ETF inflows restore demand and can sustain momentum if continued. The Fusaka upgrade adds fundamental bullish sentiment by addressing rollup data availability — a catalyst that can attract longer-term interest and on-chain activity. Short-term impact: higher volatility but a bias to the upside while $3,000 holds; traders may target a move toward $3,600 if ETH clears the 200-day MA near $3,096. Failure to hold $3,000 would negate the immediate bullish thesis and could trigger a drop toward $2,750. Long-term impact: if exchange reserves remain low and upgrades progress, structural scarcity plus improved scaling fundamentals could support a sustained bullish trend. Risk factors include macro shocks, ETF outflows resuming, or delay/faults in the Fusaka upgrade.