Ethereum rebounds as whales absorb supply — can ETH hold $2.26K?
Ethereum (ETH) has stabilized after a sell-off as large off‑market buyers aggressively accumulated supply during the dip. An OTC buyer purchased about 33,000 ETH in one day and DBS-linked wallets added nearly 25,000 ETH over a week at an average entry near $2,463. These flows were largely off‑exchange, indicating measured medium‑term accumulation rather than panic buying. On-chain and market structure: ETH traded within a descending channel, rebounding after sweeping $2,261 and stabilizing around $2,320–$2,330. Immediate resistance sits near $2,797, with the channel top near $3,404. RSI plunged to 27 during the sell-off and has begun recovering but remains below neutral. Derivatives and positioning: Binance top traders remain net-long (~77.5% long vs 22.5% short). Funding rates have risen ~104% from recent lows to ~0.0092, and open interest is around $13.4 billion (+4% daily), signaling cautious leverage rebuilding rather than speculative excess. Trading implication: coordinated off‑market accumulation, persistent long positioning, and slowly improving funding suggest a base forming rather than a short‑lived bounce. Critical level: holding $2,261 is key — a sustained acceptance above it supports a move toward $2,797; losing it would open lower liquidity zones. For traders, watch support at $2,261, overhead resistance at $2,797, funding/futures flows and off‑exchange transfer activity for cues on whether accumulation continues or selling resumes.
Bullish
The news points to coordinated off‑exchange accumulation by large buyers, cautious rebuilding of leverage, and persistent net-long trader positioning — conditions that typically support stabilization and the formation of a base rather than continued panic selling. Key supportive evidence: a single OTC buyer added ~33,000 ETH and DBS-linked wallets added ~25,000 ETH while spot outflows did not spike, showing that supply was absorbed off‑exchange. Funding rates rising from lows and a modest rise in open interest indicate traders are re-entering positions slowly, not recklessly. Binance traders remain heavily long, aligning retail/derivative positioning with the accumulation. Technicals are mixed — ETH remains within a descending channel and RSI is recovering from oversold levels — so upside is conditional on holding $2,261 and clearing near-term resistance around $2,797. Historically, similar setups (large off‑exchange accumulation during oversold conditions, gradual funding recovery) have preceded measured recoveries or multi-week consolidations rather than immediate sharp rallies. Therefore short‑term risk remains (failure to hold $2,261 could trigger further downside), but the balance of evidence favors a bullish base-building phase that increases the probability of a moderate upward move if accumulation continues.