EUR/USD Holds at 1.0900 Ahead of US CPI and NFP; Bullish Bias Intact
EUR/USD is consolidating around the 1.0900 pivot as markets await two pivotal US releases: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). The pair trades in a ~50-pip range with immediate resistance at 1.0950 and a key psychological barrier at 1.1000. Technical support sits at the 50-day moving average (~1.0850) and the 200-day moving average (~1.0780). Momentum indicators remain neutral (RSI ~58), suggesting room for directional moves once US data arrive. Market pricing shows about a 65% probability of a Fed rate cut by June, weighing on the US dollar and supporting EUR gains. ECB caution on rate cuts and resilient Eurozone data (low unemployment, stabilizing manufacturing/services) further bolster the euro. Positioning data point to institutional net-long euro exposure and increased demand for EUR/USD call options around 1.0950–1.1050. Key risks: stronger-than-expected US inflation or jobs data, geopolitical shocks, or a break below the 200-day MA at 1.0780, which would invalidate the bullish structure. Traders should watch CPI, NFP, 1.0950–1.1000 resistance, and 1.0850/1.0780 supports for short-term trade triggers. (Main keywords: EUR/USD, CPI, NFP, Fed, ECB, 1.0900)
Neutral
The article points to a consolidation around 1.0900 with a prevailing bullish bias driven by interest-rate divergence expectations (Fed likely to cut earlier than ECB), institutional net-long positioning, and technical supports (50- and 200-day MAs). However, key US macro prints — CPI and NFP — are imminent and historically provoke sharp, sometimes trend-reversing moves in FX. If CPI/NFP beat expectations, the USD could strengthen quickly and reverse the euro’s advance; if they miss, EUR/USD likely breaks higher toward 1.0950–1.1000. The neutral classification reflects this high-information event risk: current structure and positioning favor EUR, but short-term direction hinges on data outcomes. Short-term impact: elevated volatility and potential directional trades around data releases, with clear stops below 1.0850/1.0780. Long-term impact: if the market’s Fed-cut pricing persists and ECB remains more hawkish, a sustained euro bullish trend is plausible — provided no persistent upside surprises in US inflation or major geopolitical shocks. Similar past events: previous CPI/NFP surprise weeks have led to rapid 1–2% swings in major FX pairs, validating the view that the near-term outcome determines bias while structural drivers support a longer-term euro advantage.