EUR/USD Forecast: Risk-On Lifts Bullish Momentum to 1.1800
EUR/USD is showing strengthening bullish momentum, with analysts saying a sustained move above 1.1800 is increasingly likely. Technicals point to a daily uptrend of higher highs and higher lows, support holding above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. Momentum indicators stay constructive: RSI remains in positive territory without clear overbought signals, MACD histogram strengthens above its signal line, and ADX rises above 25—signaling a developing trend.
Key levels: 1.1800 is the next major psychological and technical hurdle; upside resistance is seen near 1.1880. Downside support is mapped at 1.1680 and a deeper line at 1.1600. A daily close below 1.1600 would invalidate the bullish structure.
Fundamentally, the main driver is a broad risk-on shift that weakens demand for the US dollar and other safe havens. Euro data also appears relatively resilient—Germany and France business confidence has improved and Eurozone inflation is trending toward the ECB’s 2% goal. In the US, activity is moderating and market pricing suggests a less hawkish Fed path, narrowing the rate differential that typically supports the dollar.
Traders will watch ECB/Fed communications and positioning signals. COT data reportedly flipped speculative euro positioning from net short to net long, while institutional allocation to euro bonds has increased.
Overall, EUR/USD traders may see scope for upside toward 1.1800, but the move remains sensitive to renewed geopolitical risk or any US inflation shock that forces a longer hawkish Fed stance.
Bullish
这则文章对 EUR/USD 的定性偏多，理由主要来自“技术面 + 基本面 + 持仓”三重共振：
1) 短期：技术结构与动能指标支持上破。日线更高的高点/低点、均线之上支撑，以及 4 小时上升三角形的延续信号，叠加 RSI 不呈超买、MACD 柱体走强与 ADX>25（趋势强度增强），通常会促使交易者在 1.1800 前维持做多倾向。
2) 基本面：风险偏好（risk-on）通常会削弱美元的避险属性。文章提到 US safe havens 受压、同时欧元区数据相对更稳（通胀趋近 ECB 目标、商业信心改善），再加上市场对美联储“更不鹰派”的预期，利差优势收敛——历史上这类“利差不再继续拉大 + 欧元区韧性”的组合往往推动 EUR/USD 走强，尤其当市场已经形成趋势时。
3) 中期/长期：文章强调 ECB 与 Fed 的政策分歧变窄，且 COT 显示投机仓位从净空转净多。类似阶段中一旦持仓与趋势同向，往往会延长上行区间；但若发生“地缘风险再起”或“美国通胀更粘、更久鹰派”，利差可能再度扩大，短线会加大回撤风险。
因此总体预期为看涨：EUR/USD 可能继续向 1.1800 逼近，但交易上仍需密切跟踪 1.1600 的失效条件以及后续央行表态与通胀数据带来的波动。