EUR/USD breaks below 1.1500 as Iran warns US ground attacks

EUR/USD has broken below the key 1.1500 psychological level, hitting an intraday low of 1.1487 (down over 0.8% on the day). The move is tied to Iran’s formal warning that any US ground incursion would trigger “severe and immediate consequences.” Traders are re-pricing global risk, boosting demand for the US dollar as a haven. Technically, the pair is showing bearish momentum: the 50-day moving average has fallen below the 200-day (a “death cross”), while RSI has slipped into oversold territory below 30—raising the risk of a short-term bounce, but the broader trend remains negative. Key levels: resistance at 1.1520 and 1.1580; support at 1.1480 and 1.1420. Geopolitical risk is also feeding into cross-asset markets. European equities (DAX -1.5%) underperform, US Treasury yields decline as investors seek safety, and oil prices rise (Brent +2.8% to $94.50) while gold gains modestly (+0.6%). The article also cites policy divergence: a cautious ECB versus a potentially more hawkish Fed, plus weaker eurozone manufacturing PMI (48.5) versus stronger US ISM (52.3). Positioning may amplify volatility. CFTC data shows euro speculative net longs at the highest in 18 months, increasing the risk of rapid unwinds if the headline risk persists. Base-case expectations are stabilization in a 1.1450–1.1550 range if diplomacy continues; escalation toward 1.1400 or lower is possible if military engagement follows. One-month implied EUR/USD volatility is up to 8.5% from a 6.2% yearly average.